Computationally efficient models enabling behaviour exploration of large scale cyber physical systems by simulation

P. Waegli, Proceedings of SPIE Vol. 9517 (SPIE Bellingham, WA, 2015), Paper 9517-106

Cyber physical systems (CPS) enable applications not previously possible by networking components incorporating tightly connected physical and computational (cyber) functions. We propose a method for studying and optimizing such systems at an early development stage by using simulation. Models, which mimic the cyber physical components behaviour, combine analytical models for the physical part with neural network models for the cyber part. Such models are computationally efficient, can be easily upgraded and can be networked to simulate even large scale cyber physical systems. Applications for studying architectural issues, overall reliability and commercial aspects of cyber physical energy systems will be discussed.

Role and Potential of Semi-Autonomous (PV) Power Systems - A Simulation Model to Study Feasibility and Economic Impacts

P. Waegli, Proceedings of the 31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition, 2810-2815, (2015).

Electricity generated by renewable energy sources, especially photovoltaic, is growing with high pace. Where penetration of renewables is high, energy production can, depending on weather conditions, exceed demand during certain times of the day. This causes electricity prices to fall and to become eventually even negative during such times and it poses considerable challenge to grid stability. Such a scenario is neither economically nor technically desirable. With prices for batteries falling, new storage technologies evolving and ICT becoming ubiquitous, semiautonomous systems with a high degree of energy self-sufficiency are coming into reach. Their adoption can have significant impact on existing business models and energy infrastructures. As experience is limited and field testing restricted by technical and financial constraints, simulation is the only means to study the technical and economic issues associated with the realisation of such systems where the roles of producers, distributors and consumers of energy merge. Here we report on a novel approach to model such heterogeneous systems in a unified simulation environment.

Holistic Simulations Supporting the Transition to a Decentralized Energy System Architecture

P. Waegli, Presentation, Off Grid Energy Independence, IDTechEx Show, Berlin (2018).

Decentralized, (semi-)autonomous energy systems, promising considerable advantages over traditional grid-based systems, are becoming technologically and commercially feasible and are gaining attention at accelerating pace. As experience is limited, system design, technology selection and the development of business models still pose considerable challenges for potential adopters.
We hence propose a holistic simulation approach for designing, analysing and optimising system architectures. Surrogate models for components (sources, storage, energy converters, controls, etc.), user applications and associated load profiles as well as for environmental impacts are interconnected to simulate system behaviour. We will discuss model building and will demonstrate how such simulations can be used for feasibility and trade-off studies as well as for system optimisations under various constraints.